Presenting JJ and Tommy's NBA playoff seeding predictions

Welcome to the third issue of A Farewell to Takes, our newsletter about the NBA (and wine). The 2022-2023 NBA season is upon us, and everyone (with the exception of Kylee because I don’t think she actually watches basketball) at ThreeFourTwo/The Old Man and the Three is excited for what should be an incredibly entertaining season. We’ve had a lot of drama this offseason in the NBA. There was a lot of chatter on where Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will land (they didn’t go anywhere). The Jazz entered a massive rebuild and traded Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell to two up-and-coming teams. There was a Ben Simmons interview. A coach got suspended. There was a punch. All this to say — I’m just excited to watch some basketball. The drama and transactional speculation surrounding the NBA sometimes feels bigger than the actual game itself. But as an NBA sicko, all I really want to do is watch and enjoy the game we all love so much.

In this issue of A Farewell to Takes:

• Playoff seeding predictions for both conferences from me and Tommy

• Our Stat of the Week

• Tommy's Best Thing I Ate This Week 

• The return of Gallagher TV+ with a very funny blooper reel of some behind-the-scenes OM3 footage

• Our Wine of the Week

If you enjoy this newsletter, please share and tell your friends. As always, THANK YOU.

—JJ 

The Stat of the Week is 44.5

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, 44.5 is the over/under line for the New Orleans Pelicans win total for this season. Kevin Pelton’s stats-based win projection model has a slightly more optimistic view of the Pelicans. I’m actually more bullish on the Pelicans than either of these numbers. Willie Green’s coaching style blends a mixture of emotional intelligence, interpersonal skills, X and Os, and infusion of joy. The Pelicans were one of the most fun teams to watch down the stretch of last season. Zion looks healthy and fit, Brandon Ingram seems primed for an All-NBA season, CJ McCollum has a fresh contract extension in hand, and I’m as excited as anyone for Year 2 Herb Jones. This seems like a team and franchise that is on the cusp of a big leap (similar to the leap the Memphis Grizzlies took last year). I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pelicans ended up with a top 4 seed in the West.

With that in mind … Tommy and I give you our playoff seeding predictions for both conferences (see below). One thing to note — the Western Conference is just ridiculous this year. There will be a lot of parity and a few really good teams that by virtue of the depth in the conference will end up with low seeds. —JJ 

Our Playoff Seeding Predictions

Western Conference 

1. Golden State Warriors: Despite the drama from the Draymond Green/Jordan Poole incident, I believe the Warriors will end up with the best record in the Western Conference. Poole and Andrew Wiggins just signed extensions (will be interesting to see if Draymond ends up signing an extension), Klay is another season removed from his devastating lower extremity injuries, and the young trio of James Wiseman, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody look ready to contribute. During this Warriors’ run of the last 8 seasons, they have been at their best when role players star in their roles. While the loss of Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II is significant, the rise of the young trio plus the addition of Donte DiVincenzo will help immensely. Bringing back Kevon Looney was a must — he was simply fantastic for them during last June’s championship run. Oh … and there’s Steph. He’s what makes the whole thing work.

2. Los Angeles Clippers: Kawhi is back. PG is healthy. There’s depth across the board. Ty Lue will have many different lineup combinations he can use on nights when Kawhi rests. This Clippers team is loaded.

3. Memphis Grizzlies: I do think the loss of Kyle Anderson to FA and De’Anthony Melton to a trade will have an impact, but this core group has a lot of momentum and confidence. Ja Morant hasn’t even hit his prime yet. Desmond Bane will take another step in his career. I love this team.

4. Phoenix Suns: Despite their disappointing loss to the Dallas Mavericks in last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, this team brings back their core. It feels like the Suns’ window is closing and this may be the last run they have in them with this group. If Ayton, Bridges, and Cam Johnson can all continue to improve, this team will have a shot at another Western Conference Finals or beyond.

5. New Orleans Pelicans

6. Denver Nuggets: Hard to overstate just how good Jokic was last season. The Nuggets, playing without Jamal Murray for the entire season and without Michael Porter Jr. for most of the season, ended up with the 6 seed. This season, they will be a much better team but so will the rest of the Western Conference.

7. Dallas Mavericks: It’s crazy to be putting this team in the 7 spot going into this season. I believe in their defense. I believe in the Luka. But the West is so much deeper this season. The loss of Jalen Brunson to the Knicks in free agency will definitely hurt this team. However, getting Tim Hardaway Jr. back will help offset the loss of Brunson’s offensive punch.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves: I’m not as high on the Timberwolves as Tommy, but I do think they will be better than last year when they secured a 7 seed by virtue of the play-in. Again — the West will be better this season. If Anthony Edwards takes a major leap this year and is an All-NBA caliber player, the Timberwolves will finish higher than 8.

9-10 seeds for Play-In: Los Angeles Lakers and Portland Trail Blazers

Eastern Conference 

1. Boston Celtics: Despite drama in the offseason and the suspension of head coach Ime Udoka, the Celtics got better this offseason. Malcolm Brogdon is a perfect addition to this group, and I expect all their young players to continue to improve after last year’s Finals run.

2. Milwaukee Bucks: I love Giannis. Also, the Bucks had a fantastic record last season when Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday were all in the lineup. Could see this team being the #1 seed in the East if those three guys stay healthy.

3. Philadelphia 76ers: I love the addition of De’Anthony Melton and PJ Tucker. Year 3 Tyrese Maxey, and a comfortable, fit James Harden means this team has a very high ceiling.

4. Miami Heat: #heatculture

5. Brooklyn Nets: Yes, there’s been drama, but the talent is undeniable. To me the Nets’ chances at a deep playoff run rests on two things: Ben Simmons and their team defense.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers: Like the Timberwolves, this team’s chances of a higher ceiling is based on a young player making a big leap. For the Cavs, that player is Evan Mobley. If he makes big progress in Year 2, then the Cavs could be a potential sleeper Finals pick.

7. Toronto Raptors: Wish I could have them higher as I really like this group and organization. FVV is one of our favorite players in the league, and everyone at OM3 is a big Scottie Barnes fan. Again — just like the Western Conference, there’s a lot of depth in the East and picking the Raptors 7th speaks more to the strength of the conference than a weakness of the team.

8. Chicago Bulls: Health is everything for this team. They need Lonzo back in the lineup and healthy, but this team will be really good regardless.

9-10 seeds for Play-In: Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks (sorry Knicks fans) —JJ and Tommy  

Best Thing I Ate This Week: BEC from Win Son Bakery 

Breakfast sandwiches can be an explosive topic. How much egg before it takes over/ruins the sandwich? Are kaiser rolls or bagels better bases? Are Taylor Ham and Cheeses actually good? and so on and so forth. With that being said, for our inaugural BTIATW I had to drop in the best breakfast sandwich in America, a sandwich that cannot be replicated, that I will not stop talking about which I had this past Wednesday.

From Win Son Bakery on Graham Avenue in Brooklyn, comes the bacon egg and cheese served on a scallion pancake. A bit expensive ($15) and you won't want to eat for the rest of the day, but there is no better hangover cure in America than this particular sandwich. Perfectly crisp heritage bacon, the right egg/raclette cheese proportions, and a warm scallion pancake is truly an amazing combination. I took OM3 correspondent Tyrese Haliburton to get this the last time he was in New York, and he can no longer eat normal BEC's because of it. It's that good. —Tommy 

Win Son Bakery | Instagram | 164 Graham Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11206 

This Week on Gallagher TV+: An OM3 Blooper Reel 

Who doesn't love a good blooper? I have a ton of footage we couldn't use over the last couple of months. But it felt selfish not to share with the masses. So here is the best of what I have from JJ and Tommy, Ben Simmons, DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, Hasan Minhaj, and Victor Oladipo. Enjoy! —Jason 

This week, we welcome Victor Oladipo to the show for Episode 129. We talk about how his injuries changed his perspective on life, battling LeBron in the 2018 NBA Playoffs, how good Chet Holmgren is, Russell Westbrook's competitive fire, and more. 

YouTube | Wondery+ | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | wherever you get your podcasts 

Wine of the Week: 2015 Benanti Rovittello 'Particella No. 341' Etna Rosso Riserva 

I had this wine on Saturday night at Peasant in Manhattan. I’ve loved Etna Rosso wines for a couple years now. Etna Rosso is a red wine from Sicily, and Benanti is one of my favorite producers. This particular Etna Rosso is made primarily from a grape called Nerello Mascalese. This is a single vineyard wine, and while the price is a little higher than previous Wines of the Week, I can assure you that this bottle will not disappoint. Here’s a link to a US-based distributor. —JJ 

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